Most seed-versus-seed results need to be taken with a grain of salt (and a shot of tequila followed by a lime wedge), however there's no denying the No. 12 versus No. 5 March Madness trend. Despite the randomness, this pairing continues to produce earnings for those choosing the No. 12 seed - at least versus the spread.
Since 2012, No. 5 seeds are 27-21 SU versus No. 12 seeds and 20-27-1 ATS in those opening-round matchups. Over the previous 5 Big Dances (remembering we didn't have one in 2020), No. 5 seeds are 12-8 SU and 9-11 ATS, going 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS in the 2024 competition Round of 64.
Don't simply blindly bank on No. 12 seeds over No. 5's but treat this trend with respect - like handling a cobra.
Three patterns to fade
There's a surplus of shallow March Madness betting patterns out there that you ought to never ever blindly route when placing your bets or developing your bracket. Here's the idea of the iceberg.
Conference trends
Certain conferences will have stronger historic ATS records in the NCAA Tournament, but the teams, challengers, gamers and spreads all differ when developing out this bull crap. The overall strength of conferences sways every year, so don't go chasing after the SEC teams or fading ACC schools based entirely on those conferences' counts versus the spread.
Seed vs. Seed patterns
We've singled out the No. 5-versus-No. 12 pattern, which destroyed a great deal of "savvy" brackets with all 4 No. 5 seeds advancing in 2023. Bettors should tread lightly with that details and more so with other patterns around seed-versus-seed. The level of parity in college basketball seems to be expanding by the season, so don't base a bet exclusively on the Selection Committee's seeding.
Point spread and Over/Under patterns
Brace yourself for some doozies when it concerns any historical NCAA Tournament patterns powered by spreads and totals. You'll get tantalizing trends around the Round of 64 underdogs in between a particular point range and Over/Under suggestions based upon past totals from particular seeding matchups.
As pointed out, some trends can lead you down the right handicapping roadway however a number of these take you and your bankroll to a dead end. Be hesitant of these trends and look into the previous outcomes that powered them. If you can, try to identify a story behind them that could roll over into this year's March Madness field.
How sportsbooks deal with March Madness patterns
Perhaps the very best method to assess how helpful March Madness wagering trends are is to take a look at the folks setting the odds for March Madness.
If you ask an oddsmaker if they're factoring in the past against the spread (ATS) success of No. 15 seeds into this year's No. 2-versus-No. 15 match chances, they'll likely laugh in your face. Bookmakers mostly overlook historic trends, especially in college sports, as gamer and ability turnover differs greatly from year-to-year.
Oddsmakers base their numbers on present kind and information from that season rather than historical hoo-ha pulling from random teams with random gamers led by random coaches from random conferences playing at random websites. You get the concept.
The verdict on March Madness patterns
Basketball gamblers need to watch out for lots of March Madness patterns. While betting on them blindly is bonkers, there are lessons to be gained from evaluating them and detecting previous patterns.
Veteran handicapper Marc Lawrence has a huge sports wagering database that pumps out several March Madness betting trends every year. And while he doesn't leap on board all those with his NCAA Tournament bets, he sees the value in what he calls "preparing for expectancy".
"There is a reason that Winston Churchill stated, 'Those who fail to find out from history are destined duplicate it,'" Lawrence states. "By finding out failures and successes from the past and applying abilities from today, we progress, well-rounded handicappers. Yes, groups change, however strategies and patterns are extremely predictive ... By relying on past patterns, we can better prepare for span."
March Madness wagering websites
March Madness is an extremely popular time of year for sports wagerers and among the busiest for online sportsbooks. With every betting website offering March Madness odds, it is essential to know which are safe and safe, use a wide variety of banking options, and give you a lots of markets for each game. Have a look at the very best March Madness wagering websites in your region, reviewed by Covers' group of knowledgeable experts.
